Monday, June 22, 2009

Pedro Promoted, and Other News

I've been out of town, visiting family and friends being a part of a wedding (which was beautiful), so I haven't had the chance to update much. A fair amount has been going on the past week or so however.

Pedro Alvarez was just promoted to AA Altoona after putting up some decent numbers in High A (see sidebar). His strike out total was high, as was his error total, but hopefully those were just a product of the poorer fields and worse pitching down in the low minors. I'm very excited to see how he performs at this next level. I'm guessing Alvarez will remain in Altoona the rest of this season and begin 2010 in AAA.

Also, 2006 first rounder Brad Lincoln was promoted to AAA Indianapolis. He has been pitching very well for Altoona, with a 2.28 ERA in 75 innings. It's very exciting seeing 2 of our top prospects performing well and moving up a level. Don't expect Lincoln to reach Pittsburgh this year, but he may be competing for a starting rotation spot next Spring.

In other transaction news, Craig Monroe was designated for assignment and Steve Pearce was recalled. Part of Monroe's DFA was accredited to his lack of hustle on a play in Minnesota last week, but really, does that matter too much? Monroe had no future in Pittsburgh and Pearce might. So I'm glad to see this change. With Adam LaRoche likely to be traded in 5 weeks or so, Pearce will be the logical replacement, at least in the short term.

What else? A rough road trip through Minnesota and Colorado. And that sweep in Denver was especially painful against Jim Tracy. But on the plus side, Andrew McCutchen is all kinds of awesome.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

2009 Draft is Complete

After 51 selections, the Pirates have completed their participation in the 2009 first year player draft. Here's the MLB site's draft tracker, which lists all the Bucs' picks.

Of course, much has already been said about their first pick, fourth overall, catcher Tony Sanchez from Boston College. Most of what has been said is criticism, or at least it was at the end of Tuesday's portion of the draft. One complaint that amused me was that the Pirates essentially drafted Yadier Molina in the first round. Granted, Molina is no superstar, but I will be very pleased if Sanchez turns out as good as Molina.

Anyway, here's a little theory on the first round talent (Note: I am far from an expert on amateur baseball, so bear with me here): So after Strasburg and Ackley, there didn't seem to be much of a consensus on the next best player. Perhaps the drop off in talent was pretty substantial. So maybe the Pirates though they could sign a Yadier Molina type catcher at a nice price, rather than any number of pitchers who fit into the Joe Blanton or Randy Wolf mold, someone with decent/average big league starter potential. But these Blanton-Wolf types are asking for twice what the Molina type is. And knowing that there are a number of more intriguing high school pitchers with college plans that will be available later in the draft, why not take the Molina type now? Now I know some of the pitchers selected shortly after Sanchez are actually pretty highly regarded, with more potential than this Blanton-Wolf hybrid I created. Okay, my point is that even if Sanchez was a reach, based on projections, the difference in talent between him and players like Aaron Crow and Tyler Matzek might not be that great. So judging the first round on its own (which is a little foolish, especially mere days after the fact), and disregarding Neal Huntington's strategy, I don't think this pick is all that bad. It's not great, but not nearly as bad as the Wieters/Moskos debacle.

One of the reasons the Pirates did pick Sanchez was signability, which doesn't necessarily mean that the Bucs were going cheap. Judging by their selections later in the draft, primarily early on day 2, the Pirates will certainly be needing to sign some large checks to lure these high school players away from their beckoning college scholarships. If the Pirates end up spending $8 or 9 million on signing bonuses this year, they really can't be called thrifty, since they spent in that neighborhood last year, much to the delight of Pirate fans everywhere. So if the Bucs end up signing 4 or 5 of these high-ceiling high schoolers, to go along with Sanchez, and a couple dozen others right around slot, then I would have to call this a pretty successful draft.

So let's reserve judgment until August 17 (signing deadline) on this draft. And also, let's keep in mind that we won't really know if this draft was a success for a few years.

Also, today the Bucs defeated Atlanta 3-1, to force a split in their 4 game series. Paul Maholm and Javier Vazquez had themselves a nice pitcher's duel, striking out 20 batters between them. However, Andy LaRoche singled in 2 runs in the 9th off reliever Rafael Soriano to give the Bucs their second consecutive win.

Up next, some interleague play, as the Tigers come to town. And, fortunately, Justin Verlander will not be pitching in the series.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

A Busy Night for the Pirates

The 2009 Draft began tonight, and the Pirates selected Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez with the 4th overall pick. Though Sanchez was probably the top rated catcher, selecting him at the 4th spot was considered a reach by many. And of course the more cynical Pirate fans are already calling Neal Huntington and Co. cheap. Though it seems the Pirates are taking the approach that they'd rather spread their money out over the entire draft than dedicate a substantial chunk to one pick. I don't really know enough about college baseball to know if Sanchez is worth this spot or not. I'm willing to give the team the benefit of the doubt for now.

With their second pick, the compensatory one for not signing Tanner Scheppers last year, the Bucs selected RHP Victor Black from Dallas Baptist University. Black was rated the 16th best righthander by Baseball America.

In the second round, the Pirates picked RHP Brooks Pounders, from Temecula Valley High. Though he wasn't highly rated, Pounders does sound intriguing. Also, he has a scholarship to USC, so this might be a case where the Pirates will have pay over slot to get Pounders signed.

In the third, the Bucs picked CF Evan Chambers, from Hillsborough Community College in Florida. Baseball America projected him as a 5th or 6th rounder, so this could be a reach.

With 47 picks to go over the next 2 days, we have a long way to go before we can properly evaluate the Pirates' 2009 draft.

Morton Debuts: Charlie Morton, acquired last week in the McLouth trade, makes his Pirate debut tomorrow, getting the start against the Braves. To make room for him, Tom Gorzelanny was optioned to AAA and Jeff Karstens will head to the bullpen, where he belongs. I'm very excited about this. Though Morton struggled last year with Atlanta, I'm hopeful that he can carry over his minor league success and become a solid member of the rotation.

Speaking of the McLouth trade, Jeffrey Locke, also acquired in said trade, made his debut tonight for Single-A Lynchburg. In 4 innings, he allowed 5 hits, 2 runs and 3 walks with 4 strike outs. Nothing too impressive, but it's nice to see another quality arm in the system.

In Big League action tonight, the bullpen failed to hold the lead for Ross Ohlendorf, as the Pirates fell to Atlanta, 4-3. Ohlendorf pitched fairly well, lasting into the 7th, before Sean Burnett and Jesse Chavez allowed the Braves to score 2 runs and take the lead. Robinzon Diaz, making his first start at catcher in a very long time, doubled home 2 runs for the Bucs.

Monday, June 8, 2009

2009 Season, So Far

Here we are, just over a third of the way through the 2009 season. The Pirates currently sit at 26-30, in fifth place, just a half game ahead of Houston. I want to take this time to mention some aspects of the season so far that stand out to me.

Nate McLouth: How could this not be the first topic? Though I fully support this trade, at least the idea of it, it still was quite unexpected. In fact, it still seems odd that McLouth is gone. However, with the Bucs very unlikely to contend this year, and possibly next year too, trading a player at his peak value makes tremendous sense. McLouth is a very solid hitter and a hard-nosed player, but it's not like the Cardinals trading Pujols, or even the Padres trading Adrian Gonzalez. McLouth is definitely in a much lower tier than those sort of players. And with Andrew McCutchen now up, it really softens the blow.

The Improved Defense: By any measure, the Pirates' defense in 2009 is vastly superior to the 2008 version. Much of this has to do with the outfield, with Nyjer Morgan replacing Jason Bay and Brandon Moss, among others, replacing Xavier Nady. Andy LaRoche, at third, is also an upgrade over Jose Bautista. There's a great piece over at Buc's Dugout analyzing this. And now with McCutchen taking over for McLouth, an even greater improvement should transpire. As the Buc's Dugout piece mentions, the defense has played a large role in the Pirates' pitching staff's turnaround. Though, replacing the likes of Matt Morris and JVB with Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens has a lot to do with that as well.

With the McLouth trade, and the unusual positioning of Morgan in left field, it appears that the Pirates' brass is placing a premium on defense, as they rebuild the team. If the newer defensive statistics can be trusted, and I think they can, then a cost-conscious team like the Pirates can become more competitive by focusing on defense, which is much less costly, as much as offense in order to help them outscore their opponents. It's this kind of progressive thinking that gives me confidence in Huntington and company.

The Minor Leagues: After the Pirates' most aggressive draft in recent memory, and the acquisition of some intriguing players in last year's trades, much more attention is being paid to the team's minor league affiliates. The results, so far, have been mixed, but the fact that there is some legitimate talent around is certainly exciting.

Pedro Alvarez, last year's #1 pick, is doing alright at High-A Lynchburg. Though he has hit 10 home runs and driven in 42 runs through 54 games, his 57 strike outs stand out, as do his 11 errors at third. However, since the pitchers at that level do not possess the control that they do at higher levels, and the fields in the minors can be a little questionable, those two statistics should not be of major concern. I still expect Alvarez to be called up to AA-Altoona by the end of July.

Some other high profile picks from last year are performing fairly well this year. Jordy Mercer, Chase D'Arnaud, Robbie Grossman and Calvin Anderson are all doing okay.

Two high profile acquisitions from last year, outfielder Jose Tabata and pitcher Bryan Morris, have spent much of the season out of commission with injuries. Tabata has been out since very early in the season with a hamstring injury and Morris made his season debut just last night. Both are highly regarded and were possibly the key components of the two trades last summer.

Brad Lincoln, the Pirates' first round pick from 2006, has been pitching tremendously for AA-Altoona this year. In 11 starts, covering 64 2/3 innings, he has an ERA of 1.95 and a WHIP of 1.01. Lincoln has walked 15, struck out 60 and held opponents to a batting average of .215. This is especially encouraging after Lincoln has missed so much time to injury already in his young career. And the Post Gazette reported yesterday that Lincoln will be promoted to AAA-Indianapolis very soon.

The Future: The 2009 amateur draft begins tomorrow, and the Pirates have the 4th selection. I really don't follow college, or high school, baseball so I have no insight to offer on the talent available. This year's draft class is supposed to be fairly weak, at least compared to last year's. I still expect the team to draft aggressively and probably pay over slot for some later picks. However, the more intriguing signing this summer could be that of Dominican teenager Miguel Angel Sano. The 16 year old is widely regarded as the best international prospect this year and the Pirates seem to have the inside track. Sano is expected to cost $4 million to sign. While that is clearly a risky investment for a 16 year old, a move like this is crucial for the Bucs. Acquiring the top player in the DR will put the Pirates on the map down there, thus making them more recognizable to top prospects in years to come. With this year's amateur draft likely taking less money than last year's, and with the little bit of money saved in the McLouth deal, the Pirates have no excuse, at least financially, not to make this happen.

I fully expect more trades to happen before the season is over, most likely involving John Grabow and Adam Laroche. With the continued improvements of relievers Sean Burnett, Jesse Chavez and Evan Meek, the loss of Grabow would not be felt too much. And with Steve Pearce the most likely candidate to replace LaRoche should he be traded, I feel at least some offense will be provided. At the very least, in that scenario, we'll get to see just what Pearce can do. However, with the unexpected sell-high trade of McLouth, other players, such as Freddy Sanchez, Zach Duke and Matt Capps, could be moved as well, provided an attractive return is offered.

Though it is somewhat sad to see beloved players shipped out of town, and I'm guilty of becoming emotionally attached to players, Huntington and company have done nothing so far during their reign to make me explicitly doubt their intentions. When, not if, these next trades happen, it will kind of suck, in the short term at least, but it will only make the organization stronger. That's important to keep in mind. I don't want the Pirates to be built to be contenders in 2010, or 2011. I want them to be contenders every year. And that will mean that the team will always be trying to improve, which will mean that there will always be unpopular trades. It sucks, but that's how our team works.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Charlie Morton's Debut

Up the road in Indianapolis tonight, Charlie Morton has made his first start for the Indians. I had no clue he was scheduled to pitch so soon after yesterday's trade for Nate McLouth. Well, Mr. Morton, as he will now be known, pitched 7 scoreless innings in the game. He allowed 2 singles, 2 doubles and 1 walk, while striking out 7. The game in still in progress (0-0 in the 8th) as I type this. Mr. Morton's performance tonight should be no surprise as he has been pitching quite well at the AAA level this year: before tonight, 2.52 ERA in 64 2/3 innings, with 16 walks and 55 strike outs. Mr. Morton also dominated AAA last year, but struggled horribly in the majors. I'm sure he'll be pitching for Pittsburgh before too long, and hopefully the extra AAA experience this year has helped make him into a pitcher more capable of success in the bigs. I get the feeling that if Ian Snell doesn't show marked improvement over his next start or two, he could be switching places with Mr. Morton. We shall see.

Nate Who?

Okay, not really. But I am incredibly impressed with Andrew McCutchen's major league debut today. Granted, it's just one game, but the Holy One was fantastic today. McCutchen singled and scored in his first plate appearance, walked and scored in his second, flied out in his third, grounded out in his fourth, and singled home a run, stole a base and scored again in his fifth. And the Pirates won 11-6, sweeping the Mets in this truncated three game series, much to the chagrin of Carlos Beltran.

As for Nate McLouth, my initial reaction to the trade was shock, followed by disappointment. Looking at the trade as impartially as I can, I do think the Pirates did okay. Of course, there's no guarantee that any of the three players acquired will ever have meaningful major league careers, but based on potential, and McLouth's value, it could turn out to be a very good deal. And just because McLouth was the best Pirate does not mean that he's a great player in the grand scheme of things. He was "Pirate great", not "Good Team great." He's a good ball player and I hope he thrives in Atlanta. It still stings a little though.

One reason there's a special place in my heart for McLouth, and Freddy Sanchez for that matter, is that he represents a bit of an Eff You to Jim Tracy and his horrid managerial tenure in Pittsburgh. McLouth and Sanchez were both deemed, at least initially in Freddy's case, as bench players by Tracy. And they both went on to prove him wrong, which makes me happy.

As for McCutchen, he can be as good or better than McLouth in almost every way, though that might not end up completely showing this season. But comparing the 2009 club before and after the trade, the Pirates are not necessarily worse off. Of course, and outfield comprised of McCutchen and McLouth (and Moss) would look quite a bit better than one with McCutchen and Morgan (and Moss). Though what would Nyjer Morgan have brought in a trade? A hell of a lot less than McLouth, for sure.

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