Series Finale in Milwaukee a Watershed Game

The Pirates wrap up their first month of the season with the final game of this 3 game series in Milwaukee. After losing the first two, with Jeff Karstens struggling a bit in the opener and the bullpen (particularly Tyler Yates) giving the game away in the 8th and Paul Maholm not able to hold a 4 run lead last night, the Pirates have now lost 14 consecutive games to the Brewers and 17 straight in Miller Park. Ian Snell takes this hill this afternoon, hoping to lead the Bucs to a very much needed win.

This game today feels a little extra significant to me. Not that one game in April can decide a season, but I think today's might be a bit of an indicator as to whether the Pirates can maintain their strong start.

A loss, and the Pirates fall to 11-10. It would be yet another loss to the Brewers, just like last year. The Bucs would limp into May, coming off a 2-4 road trip, and tied with the Brewers in the division, heading into a tough stretch in the schedule, with the Reds, these Brewers again, Cardinals and Mets being the opponents for the next 13 games.

But a win today would propel the Pirates into the next month with a record of 12-9, which sounds a lot better than the alternative. The Bucs would have broken two significant losing streaks and knocked the Brewers a little further back in the standings. The Pirates would head into a short home stand with a little momentum. And maybe, just maybe, Nate McLouth would return Friday.

Okay, so McLouth might return Friday anyway. But still, it does feel to me that this game will set the tone for the coming weeks of the season. And Ian Snell does actually have good numbers against the Brewers. In 5 career starts, Snell is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 32 strike outs in 34 innings. I knew he had a winning record against them, but I did not realize his numbers were that good. Of course he's facing Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers only legitimately good pitcher. And Gallardo has pretty good numbers against the Bucs, which I won't print here, so our spirits can remain high.

Pirates Look to Exorcise Another Demon

So far this young season, on their way to an 11-7 start, the Pittsburgh Pirates have received excellent starting pitching, good relief pitching, clutch hitting and solid defense. The Bucs rarely have 2 of these going at the same time, so having all 4 certainly explains their start. Well, if the Pirates' odds-defying season is to continue, they must start beating the Brewers.

In 2008, the Pirates lost 14 of their 15 games against the Brewers, including all played in Milwaukee. The Bucs also lost 10 of 16 in '07. Speaking of just the previous 2 seasons, the dominance by the Brewers, along with an 11-22 record against the Cubs and the decade-plus-long struggle in Inter-League play, has been a key contributor to the Bucs' awful win-loss records. Taking at least 2 of 3 this week in Milwaukee would be nice. The Brewers, who got off to a slow start this year, have been playing much better of late. However, the Marlins were the hottest team in baseball one week ago until they visited Pittsburgh, so...

In other news: The comic strip Mallard Fillmore look at jab at the Pirates today. See it for yourself. I'm not a fan of this strip; it's like a quieter version of Lewis Black, or a less (ironically) funny version of Andy Rooney. Anyway, it's also not very timely, since the Pirates currently reside in second place and are off to their best start in 9 years. Plus, if you're three years behind Jay Leno, of all people, with your jokes, maybe humor's not your thing.

Jack Wilson Joins His Pals Doumit and Hansen on DL

Shortstop Jack Wilson's sore middle finger apparently is not healing too quickly, and with Nate McLouth resting his oblique, the Pirates are essentially playing with a 3 man bench. So, today the Bucs placed Wilson on the 15 Day Disabled List and recalled Brian Bixler from AAA-Indianapolis. I would expect Bixler to get the majority of the starts at short, rather than Ramon Vazquez. Bixler played pretty horribly for Pittsburgh last year, but he impressed in Spring Training, so hopefully that will carry over.

Though maybe it doesn't really matter who's in the starting lineup, since the Pirates crushed the Padres last night 10-2, without the services of Wilson, McLouth or Ryan Doumit. Zach Duke dominated on the mound and the Pirates' offense was relentless. 5 different players had at least 2 hits and 6 different players drove in at least 1 run. The Pirates go for the series win this afternoon. It'll be Ross Ohlendorf versus Jake Peavy.

Meek Gets the Call

Reliever Evan Meek was recalled from AAA today to take the roster spot of Craig Hansen, who was placed on the 15-day Disabled List. I'm happy for Meek since he pitched great this Spring and only missed out on the Opening Day Roster due to illness, and a bit of a tired arm. With Jesse Chavez pitching better than expected, I wasn't sure when, or if, Meek would get called up. Hansen has neck spasms, which might be code for "We'd rather have Meek active right now." I really don't know the severity of the neck spasms, so I'm just speculating.

In other injury news, Nate McLouth is out of the lineup again tonight, with his strained oblique. I think the Bucs are just being cautious with him and he'll probably be back Monday in Milwaukee, if not tomorrow.

Pirates' Late West Coast Loss Affects My Sleep

The Pirates played their first Pacific Time Zone night game since my move to the Eastern Time Zone, and apparently I am incapable of falling asleep while the Pirates are playing. The 11-inning game ended around 1:40 am locally, and I stayed up until the end, following along on GameCast, which is kind of a sad way to "watch" a game. I do actually prefer the ESPN one, versus the MLB one, because it retains a little drama. Though I do like MLB's pitch analysis, when a ball is put in play, they suck the few split seconds of excitement out of the game cast with their "In Play, Out(s)" or "In Play, Run(s)" statements. ESPN shows the little white dot head from the mound to the plate and then back to the field. What will happen next? A hit? An Out? I can't wait to find out! It's so exciting!

Anyway, the game itself was obviously disappointing, as Ian Snell struggled with his command, walking 5 and allowing 3 runs in 5 innings. The Pirates scored 2 runs to tie it up in the top of the sixth and I started to get the feel that some '09 Pirate magic was about to unfold. The bullpen held the Padres in check for a number of innings and the Bucs looked like they were about to get something going in the ninth, as Nyjer Morgan led off with an infield single. But after Jack Wilson couldn't get the sacrifice down and Morgan was picked off first, the game was starting to look like a vintage '93-'08 Pirate affair. Matt Capps, he of the impeccable control, walked 2 in the 11th prior to Brian Giles game-winning hit, giving the Padres a 4-3 win.

The Bucs were without Nate McLouth, who sat out with an oblique strain. Thankfully, it's not considered to be too serious. On the bright side, the bullpen pitched very well, aside from Capps, and Lil' LaRoche extended his hitting streak to 8 games, during which he's hitting .357.

It's another late one in San Diego tonight. And it's the big Bounce-Back game for Zach Duke. Right? Who's with me?

Marlins Claim Davidson, And Other News

Pitcher Dave Davidson, whom the Pirates placed on waivers last week to make room for Delwyn Young, was claimed today by the Florida Marlins, reports the PBC Blog. Davidson, who played for Team Canada in the WBC, appeared in only 9 games in AAA, 3 this season, in parts of seven seasons in the Pirates' system. His numbers weren't bad, but he probably would never have been more than an average middle- or long-reliever. Not a huge loss, though the Pirates still do have to send 2 players (or possibly cash) to the Dodgers to complete the Young deal, so hopefully Young will pay off.

The Bucs start a three game series tonight in San Diego, as I try to adjust to the Eastern Time Zone for baseball games. It still seems odd to me that games can start at 10pm here. Anyway, I'm hopeful Pittsburgh can continue their recent strong play and at least take 2 of 3 from the Padres. San Diego got off to a surprisingly good start this year, before struggling a little lately. Fortunately for the Pirates, Chris Young will not be pitching for San Diego. Young is a notorious Pirate killer. In 5 starts over the past three seasons, Young is 4-0 against Pittsburgh, with an ERA of 1.51, allowing only 17 hits in 35 2/3 innings. The Pirates will face longtime Giant Kevin Correia, former National Shawn Hill, and ace Jake Peavy, who is actually about as tough on the Bucs as is Chris Young. But Peavy has been hittable this year, so you never know. The Bucs are starting Ian Snell, Zach Duke and Ross Ohlendorf. I'm very curious to see how Duke follows up his horrible start against Atlanta last weekend. Hopefully, that was just an aberration.

Adam "Mr. April" LaRoche Update: Let's take another look at how his stats this year compare to his previous 2 seasons in Pittsburgh (each through 15 games the team has played):

2007: .100 AVG, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, .490 OPS
2008: .143 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBIs, .472 OPS
2009: .304 AVG, 3 HRs, 10 RBIs, .939 OPS

Clearly better numbers this year, but if we look a little further, we see that LaRoche has struck out once every 4 plate appearances this year. Though not exactly impressive, in 2008 he struck out once every 3.36 PAs, and in 2007, once every 3. A noticeable improvement. However, this year LaRoche has walked once every 15 PAs, versus once every 9.4 PAs in '08 and once every 6.67 PAs in '07. (Note: I am just comparing the first 15 games for each of these years.) So, is LaRoche hitting better because he's being more aggressive, or is he being more aggressive because he's hitting well?

Break Up The Pirates!

After today's 7-4 win over the Marlins, the mighty Pittsburgh Pirates sit at 9-6, which is the Pirate equivalent of being undefeated. This is the Bucs' best start, through 15 games, since 2002, when they were 10-5, and on their way to 12-5, before the wheels fell off and they ended up 72-89 for the year. Here a quick look at the Pirates' records through 15 games each season since PNC Park opened:

2001: 6-9
2002: 10-5
2003: 8-7
2004: 7-8
2005: 4-11
2006: 4-11
2007: 6-9
2008: 7-8

As we all know, the Pirates ended up with a losing record in each of these seasons so I'm trying not to get too excited by their start this year. But one aspect of the Bucs' impressive start that I am feeling good about is the way they're winning games. For the most part, the Pirates look like a legitimately good team. They're playing fundamentally well, with good base running and clutch hitting. Their starting pitching has been excellent, which in turn means the bullpen has not been overused, resulting in effective relief work. It seems that in previous seasons, whenever the Pirates would put together a winning stretch, many of their victories would be of the scrappy, come-from-behind variety. Which is nice, don't get me wrong, but the Pirates of 2009 seem to finally be playing as if they expect to win. Not in an arrogant way; just confident. Maybe this "confident" start will turn into a "diffident" stretch at some point, and the losses will begin to outnumber the wins. Actually, it will probably happen. But for now, I'm just gonna enjoy the ride.

Bad News, Pirate Fans: Doumit Out With Broken Wrist

Our worst fears were realized this afternoon as it was announced that catcher Ryan Doumit will miss 8-10 weeks after having surgery on his injured right wrist.

Here's the report from the official site.

And here's a little more info from the PBC Blog.

What this means is that the tandem of Jason Jaramillo and Robinzon Diaz will share catching duties until roughly the All Star Break. Jaramillo has looked pretty decent so far this year in his limited playing time, and Diaz had a very nice Spring, at least with the bat. Neither will come close to matching Doumit's offensive capabilities, but they should both be adequate. Unfortunately, there's just not a whole lot of power in this lineup to begin with and now we're looking at the Pirates having a pretty weak bottom half of the order, with Andy LaRoche, Jack Wilson and whichever catcher occupying the 6 through 8 spots. Actually, the five spot's not too great either, with Brandon Moss or Craig Monroe sharing that.

I doubt a trade will be made for an experienced catcher, other than possibly to fill in at Indianapolis. There's no need to panic too much in this situation and there's probably not too many catchers available that are much better than Jaramillo or Diaz.

Maybe the most discouraging aspect here is that this is yet another injury for Doumit. He misses time every year with various injuries. There's no reason to think that it won't happen next year too. He's a tremendous hitter and he's improving behind the plate a bit, but it might be time for the Bucs' brass to start thinking about a new long-term option at catcher.

Bucs Blank Fish

The hottest team in all of baseball comes to town and get dominated by Ross Ohlendorf? Hard to believe, but it happened. Ohlendorf held the Marlins to 2 hits over 7 scoreless innings in the Pirates' 8-0. This was the Bucs' fourth shutout in 13 games this season, and also their fourth win by a margin of 7 or more runs. So far, when the Pirates are on, they're very on. For a little comparison, the Pirates' 4th win by seven or more runs last season occurred on May 2. Their 4th shutout, August 1.

Due to the very light night of MLB action, including a couple of rain outs, the Pirates did get some decent coverage on the MLB Network's recap show. They even had Mr. Ohlendorf himself on the phone talking about his start. However, Mitch Williams tried to offer some insight on the Bucs' "anonymous" rotation, saying something like "the rotation is having success now because nobody around the league has seem them yet. Things could change once teams face these pitchers 2 or 3 times." Sure, for Ohlendorf, but Maholm, Snell and Duke have about 100 career starts each. Mitch Williams is an idiot. He adds nothing to their show, and I'm not just saying that to protect my Pirates. Luckily Harold Reynolds is there too, to add a little sanity to the proceedings.

So anyway, we've got Jeff Karstens pitching Tuesday night against Anibal Sanchez. I really have no idea what to expect at this point.

Duke Shelled; Braves Avoid Sweep

Count me among those feeling a little overconfident after the Pirates shut out the Braves over the first two games of this series. A nice 3-0 win on Friday, led by a solid Paul Maholm start, and a 10-0 beat down on Saturday, with Ian Snell pitching well and Craig Monroe jacking a pair of three-run homers. I figured red-hot Zach Duke could keep it up against this weak Braves lineup. I was sorely mistaken. Today, Duke had what would have been considered a bad start for him in '07, the nadir of his career. Duke allowed 6 runs and 12 hits in 6 innings. He was even helped out by 2 double plays and a couple of base running errors by the Braves, so it could have been worse. The final score, after Craig Hansen and Donnie Veal relieved, was 11-1. Ugly.

I'd be hard pressed to come up with any positives from this game. Let me think...Um, no injuries occurred. And all 13 position players entered the game. Delwyn Young got another at bat and played some center field. Andy LaRoche now has a 4 game hitting streak, which ties his Pirate high from his one hot streak last year. So, yeah. Not much. And now the 11-1 Florida Marlins come to town for three games. Eep.

Duke and Maholm and Three in the Loss Column?

That phrase was mentioned by someone, I think it was in a Post-Gazette Q&A, around the end of the 2005 season, the season in which Zach Duke and Paul Maholm made their terrific debuts and made Pirate fans giddy with excitement, at least for the top 2 spots in the rotation. A number of different variations of this phrase were offered, but this was the most memorable. Perhaps the best of its kind since "Burkett and Swift and pray for a snow drift." Anyway, the 2006 through 2008 seasons made the phrase quickly fade from memory, primarily due to Duke, though both pitchers struggled in '06, and at least in parts of '07.

However, here we are, 10 games into the 2009 season and the Pirates stand at 5-5. The starting pitchers for the 5 wins: Duke and Maholm. And for the five losses: the other 3 starters. Okay, that's hardly fair, since Ian Snell pitched pretty well last Sunday in Cincinnati and Ross Ohlendorf's first start, last week in St. Louis, was decent. I don't actually expect this trend to continue. I'm sure Duke and Maholm will lose games this year. Snell and Ohlendorf will win some games. And Jeff Karstens, well...he'll try really hard.

It's funny looking back on 2005, and how so many Pirate fans were filled with optimism for these two young starters. Little did we know then that we were to endure three more losing seasons, during which our two young phenoms struggled at times, to reach this point: A young Pirates team, led by two kind-of-young hurlers. I'm not saying history's repeating itself, it's just that I think where the Pirates are now is where we thought they were going to be in '06, fighting their way toward respectability behind some solid young starting pitching.

Delwyn Young Joins the 25-Man Roster

The PBC Blog reports that the Pirates have optioned Luis Cruz to AAA to make room for newly acquired Delwyn Young on the active roster. Young has primarily played in the outfield the past 3 or 4 years (including time in the majors as well as the minors), at least partly due to his shaky defense at second base, which was his original position. Because of this, I thought, initially, that this would mean the end of Craig Monroe. I mean, that would make more sense in terms of the overall balance of the big league roster, since Ramon Vazquez would be the only legitimate reserve infielder. But one thing I didn't consider, which I should have, is that the Bucs' current management team puts at least as much focus on the strength of the 40 man roster, and the entire organization in general, as they do on the 25 man active roster. By designating Dave Davidson for assignment, thus clearing a spot for Young on the 40 man, the Pirates risked losing a player who has marginal upside and who may even clear waivers and rejoin the AAA roster. This way, the Pirates can add Young without sacrificing a current player (This is aside from the 2 players to be named later, or cash, owed to the Dodgers). Now, the Pirates can just option Cruz, clearing a spot on the 25 for Young, and, for the time being at least, improve the strength and depth of their top 2 levels. The Big League club now has a little more offense, though a bit less defense and flexibility. However, with Brian Bixler and now Cruz available in AAA, should an injury occur to Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez, the Pirates have at least 2 major league ready substitutes.

Back End of Rotation Exposed, As Pirates Lose First Series of Year

Starting pitching was the Achilles' heel of the 2008 Pirates, but through seven games this year it was looking like a strength. Unfortunately, that was because Jeff Karstens had not yet pitched. Karstens got the nod today in the final game of a three game series against Houston, with the teams having split the first two. Zach Duke was brilliant on Monday, as the Bucs won 7-0. Ross Ohlendorf, not so good on Wednesday, as the Astros won. Today, Karstens showed his rust as he struggled through 4 innings, allowing 3 runs, 4 hits and 5 walks. This forced the Pirates to use their bullpen for 5 innings, a day after needing 4 innings from the 'pen, and Sean Burnett gave up a tie-breaking 3-run homer to Lance Berkman, as the Astros held on for a 6-3 win. The Pirates now sit at 4-5.

There were some positives in this game though. Nyjer Morgan continued his hot start with 3 hits, including a double and a triple. Andy LaRoche recorded his very first hit of the year, though he did ground into a double play to end the eighth. Hopefully with the first one out of the way, Andy can relax and get it going a bit. Speaking of LaRoches, big brother Adam continued his nice start to the year with 2 doubles. He's currently hitting .294, which is Hornsby-esque for LaRoche this month. Also, Jason Jaramillo made his big league debut, spelling Ryan Doumit for the day. Jaramillo collected his very first hit in the fourth but, unfortunately, was 0-2 throwing out would-be base stealers. The Braves come into town tomorrow for three games, and the timing might work out for the Bucs as Chipper Jones is nursing a sore thumb and may miss some of the series.

Just for fun, here's a little look at how Adam LaRoche has fared through 9 games each of his three seasons with Pittsburgh:

2007: .097 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, .426 OPS
2008: .129 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBIs, .487 OPS
2009: .294 BA, 3 HR, 6 RBIs, .961 OPS

Okay, now that I've officially jinxed him...

Rumors of Freddy Sanchez's Demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

With today's acquisition of outfielder Delwyn Young from the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the PBC Blog's report that Neal Huntington wishes to try him at second, this got me thinking about the future of incumbent second baseman Freddy Sanchez. Now, I don't know if the Pirates want to play Young at second to possibly groom him to replace Sanchez, or to just expand the number of positions he could play, thus increasing the likelihood of working his bat into the lineup more. I'm hoping for the latter since I don't think Sanchez should be leaving town any time soon.

Sanchez signed a two year deal prior to the 2008 season. The deal also calls for an option year for the 2010 season. The Pirates can choose to exercise this on their own accord or it could automatically kick in if Sanchez reaches 635 plate appearances or 600 PA's with an All-Star selection. The dollar figure for that 2010 option year would be between $8 and $8.5 million, depending on incentives reached. Now, $8 million seems like a good chunk of change for the thrifty Pirates to spend on one player, but if you factor in impending raises for the likes of McLouth, Doumit, Maholm, Snell and Duke, the Pirates' 2010 payroll should be comparable to this years'. Now, I am also assuming that Adam LaRoche and John Grabow will be gone, and if Jack Wilson returns, it will certainly be at a substantial pay cut. So, I don't think money, at least the total amount of it, should be an issue.

Sanchez's production last season has caused many Pirate fans to give up on him. I've seen on numerous Pirate blogs and message boards that fans everywhere are already looking ahead to having Shelby Ford at second. Now, Ford might end up being a decent player, but I don't get how he can be anointed so soon, and so easily. The 24-year-old Ford spent last season at AA and is currently the starting second baseman for AAA Indianapolis. He looks to be a solid contact hitter with some base stealing ability, though, statistically at least, he doesn't appear to much different than Warren Morris. I'm hoping for greater things from Ford, but let's not get too excited about him just yet. And Young, well, he is certainly Sanchez's inferior with the glove, and maybe even with the bat.

But back to Sanchez's production. Last year, he had his worst overall season since 2004. Struggling with a shoulder injury, Sanchez hit just .226 prior to the All-Star Break. Afterwards, however, Sanchez was among the league leaders with an average of .346. That, coupled with his solid '07 season (.304, 81 RBIs) and standout '06 campaign (.344, 85 RBIs), lead me to believe that Freddy Sanchez is still a superb hitter. 3 bad months does not mean that he's washed up. And, though it's only been 7 games, Sanchez is hitting .375 with 6 doubles this year. Why look to replace a very good hitting, and solid fielding, second baseman when you don't have to.

But it's not just that I'm worried team management is thinking along these lines, it's the fans I don't get. We're the fans, people. It's not our job to worry about money. We don't need to take the GM mindset while planning for the future of the Pirates. Have years of the Pirates dumping star players caused us to take up a defensive position, to protect ourselves from the shock and heartbreak of losing a favorite player, so much so that we're got to pine for the Shelby Fords of the world? I seriously hope not.

My job as a fan is to cheer for the Pirates and hope that the team does whatever it can to produce a winner. And this year, at least, Freddy Sanchez is the best option at second base. Next year? Well, based on who's currently in the system, it's Freddy Sanchez again. So that's who I want to see at second base. If the team trades him, I'll be disappointed, but hopeful that the return is substantial. If Sanchez stays through this season, but his option isn't exercised, I'll still be disappointed, but I'll understand that it's part of the game. But Pirates fans already planning, sometimes excitedly, for life after Freddy? That I don't understand.

Pirates Trade for Delwyn Young

The Pirates today acquired outfielder Delwyn Young from the LA Dodgers for 2 players to be named later. Young is out of options and will need to be added to the Pirates' active roster, which means the Pirates will have to make room for him. Unless there is already another trade in the works, I could see the Bucs parting with Craig Monroe, via his unconditional release. Monroe has seen little playing time and has no upside. Another possibility would be to send Luis Cruz to AAA and have Young take over a utility infield spot. Though that is very unlikely since Young, who was drafted as a second baseman in 2002, has not played second base regularly since 2005, while in the Dodgers' minor league system, and his great number of errors there (102 errors at 2B from 2002-05) probably mean he's in the outfield to stay.

Hopefully the Pirates did not acquire Young hoping that he develops into a quality starter, because I don't think that's going to happen. Young thrived in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, the same league that propelled Andy LaRoche to top prospect status. Neither has done anything of note in parts of a few big league seasons, though Young hasn't even been given the consistent playing time that LaRoche has. I'm not trying to say that I have a problem with this trade, or that I think Young, or even LaRoche, will be a bust. I just hope he was acquired to be a complementary piece. At the very least, Young is a step up from Craig Monroe.

We may have to wait to see what kind of 25 man roster move is made, since Young may begin his Pirates' career on the disabled list. Young had off season elbow surgery and was on a rehab assignment in the LA system at the time of the trade. However, to put Young on the 15-day DL, a change to the 40 man roster must be made. And if it's gonna be Monroe once Young's healthy, might as well make it Monroe now too.

UPDATE: The PBC Blog reports that pitcher Dave Davidson was designated for assignment, clearing room on the 40 man roster, and that the 25 man roster move won't happen until Friday. They also speculate that Luis Cruz will be the one sent down, making Young more of a general utility man than a reserve outfielder. That move would hurt the team's defense and versatility but provide a better bat off the bench.

Bucs Impressive in Home Opener

The Pirates dominated the Astros today in their home opener by a final score of 7-0. Impressive were the Pirate hitters, as every starter collected at least one hit, 7 of the 14 total hits went for extra bases and the team combined to strike out twice, while drawing 5 walks. A solid, all-around performance, with stand out games by Freddy Sanchez (3 doubles, 2 runs scored) and Adam LaRoche (single, double and home run). But, that wasn't even the real story today. Zach Duke, he of the 18-37 record and 4.82 ERA from 2006-08, tossed a complete game shutout, allowing 4 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 5. Granted, this was against a seriously struggling Astros' lineup, but with 2 very good games to start the season, you can't help but wonder if the classic Duke of '05 is back. I really hope that's true, but it will definitely take more than a couple starts to make me a believer. Remember, Duke shut out the Giants last year, and no one will confuse the '08 Duke with the '05 Duke, so let's be patient. Duke's next start is scheduled for Sunday against the Braves, a team that features some pretty heavy hitters. If Duke can at least put up a quality start then, I might start thinking about getting back on board.

After seeing Saturday's game in person, I was able to catch Sunday's on FSN. It looks like the Reds are considered the home team locally, at least as far as televising games is concerned. Though the game was dominated by Aaron Harang, it was nice to see Ian Snell pitch. Aside from the first inning homer by Brandon Phillips, Snell's numbers for the game looked pretty good, and he did appear to grow stronger as the game wore on. But watching it, though Snell's stuff looked good, his command was off a bit. He missed Doumit's target a number of times, most notably to Phillips on that home run. Doumit set up just off the inside corner and Snell's pitch crossed just left of the middle of the plate. Still, it was a great rebound from his first start and I'm hopeful that Snell, like Duke, is on the right track to regaining his more dominant form from seasons past.

I also want to mention the Reds' broadcasters. They called a very fair game and offered much praise for individual Pirates. They were very impressed with Nyjer Morgan and they said Jack Wilson may be the best defensive shortstop to never win a Gold Glove. I'm assuming they meant the best current shortstop, but that's still high praise. The announcers stood out to me because I'm used to Mike Krukow's antics in the Bay Area. While I appreciate his energy and excitement for the game, most of his asides regarding the opposing teams are gross generalizations and assumptions.

Also, PEDRO WATCH '09 is up and running. In the top right hand corner of this blog is a little running statistical total for Pedro Alvarez. Even though he won't make it to Pittsburgh this year, I'm still very excited about him and I'm looking forward to following his progress all season.

A Trip to Cincinnati

This weekend, my wife and I traveled to Cincinnati, primarily to see the Pirates take on the Reds, but also because we had never been there before and, frankly, we were in need of a little vacation. We arrived late afternoon Friday, during a torrential downpour, but were pleasantly surprised by the traffic, or lack thereof, in downtown Cincinnati. I realize it was a Friday, but at 5 pm, in any city, shouldn't it take more than 10 minutes, from the time we enter the city limits, to reach out hotel? Maybe we've just spent too much time in the Bay Area.

When we moved to Bloomington, Indiana a few months back, we fully expected to be charmed by the good old fashioned Midwest hospitality, but, unfortunately, Bloomington is lacking in that department. However, Cincinnati may be the friendliest place I've ever been. At our hotel, the front desk clerk accidentally checked us into the wrong room. Within 5 minutes, the very same desk clerk arrived at our door, apologized, and led us to the correct room. We ate dinner at a restaurant in the hotel that night, and our server, while a little slow with the check, was incredibly friendly. Even the employees at the coffee shop we stopped in on Saturday were nice. And strangers on the street. And a random woman we rode in the parking garage elevator with. Nice people everywhere. Weird.

Nyjer Morgan steps to the plate

The game itself was quite fun. Luckily we chose the Saturday game of this series, as Friday's was rained out and Sunday's was won by the Reds. Anyway, the game was great. Paul Maholm pitched wonderfully. Nyjer Morgan caused a lot of trouble for the Reds, reaching base 4 times and breaking up plays on the base paths. Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit and Adam LaRoche each homered and the Pirates ended up winning 10-2.

Paul Maholm on the mound

The Reds' stadium, the Great American Ball Park, is a very nice place. It looks a lot more impressive in person than it does on television. Having never been to PNC Park, I can't imagine the same could be said for it, since it already looks spectacular on TV. But I digress. So, our seats were just on the first base side of home plate, many rows back, underneath the second deck. We still had a very good view though, but it would have been nice to be in the sun as the cool breeze became a bit much. It wasn't San Francisco cold, but it was still pretty cold.

Nate McLouth completes his home run trot

The stadium is very well laid out and very clean. Though we didn't stray from the ballpark staples of hot dogs and nachos, there did seem to be a decent selection of food. And the service here was great too. At one concession, I asked for nachos and the woman working the counter told me, "You don't want these nachos. The good ones are in an alcove down the first base line." And she was right. Also, when we first arrived, the usher showed us to our seats and wiped them down for us. WTF? At the Oakland Coliseum, the ushers spit in your seats.

Great game, great little weekend escape. Very nice introduction to Cincinnati for us. I've now seen Major League games in 6 different ballparks, and the Pirates in 5 of those. Hopefully, this summer we'll be able to shoot over to Pittsburgh to see my first ever Pirates' home game. At the very least, we'll certainly head up to Indianapolis some time to check out the Indians.

Pedro Alvarez Homers in First Pro Game

Pedro Alvarez homered and drove in 4 runs in his first official professional game. Alvarez also singled and doubled tonight in Class-A Lynchburg's 6-5 win against Potomac. I know it's just one game but this is absolutely something worth getting excited, even overly, about. The Pirates don't often have a potential superstar anywhere in their system and I plan to follow Alvarez's games just as closely as the big league club's. Also of note in this game, 2008 third round pick Jordy Mercer had two hits and scored two runs.

In the show, the Pirates lost to the Cardinals 2-1 this afternoon. The Bucs managed just 1 hit off a finally healthy Chris Carpenter, spoiling a solid start by Ross Ohlendorf. The Pirates head to Cincinnati for three games beginning tomorrow, and my wife and I will be there in person for Saturday's game. It is our first visit to Cincinnati and expect to see some snapshots of the Great American Ballpark by the end of the weekend.

Pirates Bounch Back From Ugly Defeat

Tuesday's 9-3 loss to the Cardinals was pretty hideous. Ian Snell got tagged for 6 earned runs and 9 hits in 4 innings. Aside from Nyjer the Great and Freddy Sanchez, pretty much no offense. Andy LaRoche even dropped a pop up. In that game, the Cardinals looked like the Cardinals and the Pirates looked like what people expect the Pirates to look like. A good team, or in the Pirates' case, a mediocre team, needs to follow up a poor showing with a good one, and that's what happened tonight.

Sanchez and Jack Wilson led a 17 hit attack with 4 hits apiece in the Bucs' 7-4 triumph. Morgan, Brandon Moss and Ryan Doumit added multi-hit games of their own as the Pirates jumped to an early 4-0 lead and were able to hold on for the win. Zach Duke made the start and pitched quite well, allowing 3 runs, 1 of which was earned, in 6 1/3 innings. I really hope this guy can put it back together this year. If he pitches half as well as he did in 2005, the Pirates just might have a decent starting rotation.

A couple areas of concern in this game though. Doumit's defense behind the plate; he had a passed ball and was called for catcher's interference. And one of the three "reliable" relief pitchers, Tyler Yates, was very shaky yet again. Yates faced three batters in the ninth, allowing 2 doubles and a walk. He was fortunate though that Joe Thurston was thrown out trying to stretch his double into a triple. Matt Capps had to come in and save the day. Hopefully Yates can get himself straightened out because the Pirates really need some dependability in the late innings.

Up next, the series finale in St. Louis on Thursday. Ross Ohlendorf makes the start for Pittsburgh. He had a great Spring and I'm hopeful that he can carry it over into the season.

Bucs Win Opener, But Temper Your Excitement

Jack Wilson's 2 out, 2 strike, bases clearing double in the 9th led the Pirates to a dramatic Opening Day win over the Cardinals. Paul Maholm pitched very well and the much-maligned Nyjer Morgan had three hits and two RBIs. The Pirates left many runners on base throughout the game and relievers Tyler Yates and John Grabow allowed the Cards to break a 2-2 tie in the 8th, so this had the feeling of an sluggish, inevitable loss. But the 4 run rally in the ninth gave the Pirates their third consecutive Opening Day win, all on the road and all featuring late rallies. And in case anyone forgot, the Pirates followed each of those previous dramatic Opening Day wins with a last place finish for the season. I would love to say that that won't happen this year, and maybe it won't. But one great win does not a great season make. Opening Days feature just as many anomalies as they do truths. CC Sabathia will end up making more great starts than not. The Rangers will not always get tremendous pitching. Adam Lind will not drive in 972 runs, obviously. He won't even lead the league. Today was just one day. The Pirates' win was just one win. It was a thrilling win, but still just one win.

Why the Pirates Will Finish in Last

First off, the Pirates finished in last place in 2008, with a record of 67-95, 7 full games behind the 5th place Reds, so predicting another trip to the cellar hardly seems insightful or daring. Before getting into the Pirates' deficiencies, let's take a look at the rest of the division:

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have won this division each of the past two seasons and their roster remains relatively intact this year. Though they have a very balanced team, with strong starting pitching, a good bullpen and a number of dangerous hitters, I feel this is a team on, or at least about to be on, a decline. Most of their position players are past their best seasons and the same goes for their starting pitchers. However, in this division, at least for this year, they will have enough.

St. Louis Cardinals: Tony LaRussa's teams are almost always competitive, and with a healthy Chris Carpenter, their starting rotation should be very good. They have a good, not great, offense, led by Albert Pujols. But I think this is also a team on the decline, and they'll only finish ahead of Milwaukee because the Brewers are declining a little faster.

Milwaukee Brewers: With CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets gone, the starting rotation is led by Yovani Gallardo. While I expect Gallardo to blossom into an elite starter, it won't be enough to make up for the mediocrity in the rest of the staff. Their bullpen is questionable and their defense is pretty bad. They have some seriously dangerous sluggers, led by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, and some intriguing prospects on the way in Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar, but they strike out at too severe a rate. If improved pitching doesn't arrive soon, Milwaukee could be heading back to the lower half of the division for years to come.

Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are a team on the rise. With young hitters like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, they have the makings of a very good offense. And their starting pitching is very solid, with Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. If their bullpen holds up, they might be able to sneak into the playoff race, but they will at least be a force by next year.

Houston Astros: This is an old team, with some talented players who are past their prime. Aside from Hunter Pence, not one significant player on their roster in under 30. Even their top two pitchers, Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez are over 30. They're a veteran team that is still capable of winning their share of games, but Father Time catches up this year.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Much has been made about the fact that the Pirates' 2008 record of 67-95 ended with a 17-37 finish after the trades of Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte and Jason Bay. And that Pirate team that lost 37 of their final 54 games last year is essentially the same group opening the 2009 season for the Bucs. That is true, but it would be foolish to suggest that the team will play to the same winning percentage this year. Aside from the positions vacated by the three aforementioned players, the Pirates could very well see improvement everywhere else.

Catcher: Ryan Doumit shined in his first semi-healthy season. If he can remain healthy this year, there is no reason to believe that his production would drop. And the backup catcher, Jason Jaramillo for now, is an upgrade over Ronny Paulino, at least defensively.

First Base: Adam LaRoche is back, ready to suck for 2 months before turning into a solid hitter. Though that trend continued last year, LaRoche did miss some time in August and really didn't hit as well in the second half as he usually does. If he can get off to a better start...Nah, who am I kidding? Expect 1B production this year to mirror last year's.

Second Base: Freddy Sanchez struggled through a shoulder injury last year and, though he didn't admit it, his hitting was affected. Sanchez did rebound to hit .340 after the All Star Break. Though I don't expect him to hit that high for this season, he certainly should improve upon his .271 average from a year ago.

Shortstop: Jack Wilson suffered through injuries last year, and his periodic replacement, Brian Bixler, was atrocious. Bixler looked much better in camp this year, so if Wilson goes down again, the drop off should not be as significant. Either way, it has to be better than last year.

Third Base: Andy LaRoche, who arrived in the Bay trade, looked over matched at the plate and in the field in 2008. Prior to his arrival, third base was occupied by Jose Bautista, Doug Mientkiewicz and Luis Rivas. None of which were outstanding, by any means. If LaRoche can play a little more comfortably, and prove his minor league offensive numbers were legitimate, the Pirates could maybe be average at third.

Left Field: Nyjer Morgan replaces Jason Bay. Expect more steals, little else. I do like Nyjer, not as a long term solution, but as a 4th or 5th outfielder or trade bait. But his production will be dwarfed by Bay's from '08.

Center Field: Nate McLouth was the Pirates' breakout star in 2008. Taking advantage of the playing time that Jim Tracy didn't offer, McLouth was an All-Star, he surpassed 20 home runs and 20 steals, and he won (thanks to the notoriety his offense provided) a Gold Glove. I don't see any reason why McLouth couldn't produce just as well this year.

Right Field: Brandon Moss might end up being as good a hitter as Nady, but I doubt we'll see him accomplish that this year. Probably not even close.

Bullpen: This year's bullpen should be worse than last. Matt Capps, John Grabow and Tyler Yates could be just as good this year as last, but aside from them, it's pretty questionable. And with 3 of the other 4 stuck on the active roster (due to player options and Rule 5 status), there is little room to make changes.

Starting Pitching: What was clearly the team's weakest point a year ago looks a little stronger today. Though all 5 starters (Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Karstens) made starts last year, and therefore contributed to the league worst team ERA of 5.08, the absence of other dreadful pitchers, and the presence of suitable fill-ins in AAA, makes me feel a little more optimistic this year. Even is you were to discount the performances of John Van Benschoten, Yoslan Herrera and Matt Morris, the Pirates' team ERA would have been 4.86, still last in the National League. But I do feel that Ian Snell will bounce back this year and Zach Duke may show some improvement too. And with 5 capable starters available at AAA, should the need arise, there shouldn't be much of a drop off in performance.

Though I think the Pirates' final record for this year will be closer to their final record from last year than to their post-trade record, it will still not be enough to climb in the standings. My goal for the team is 75 wins. Though that might be a reach, I still feel this will be a competitive team and, coupled with the decline of their division mates, a fourth or fifth place finish in 2010 is well within reach.

2009 MLB Predictions

Every year, I write down my predictions for the final standings and the postseason. Usually it's on a scrap of paper, and maybe I show it to a fellow baseball fan at work. Or maybe I'll email it to a friend. That's it, nothing too official. Well last year, I picked the Phillies to reach the World Series (and lose to Cleveland) but, of course, where's the proof? Well this year, I am documenting it for the world to see. (Author's note: The entire world is, in fact, capable of seeing this, even if only three people will read it.) May I present to you, my predictions for the 2009 Major League Baseball season:

American League
(Standings listed in order of finish, * denotes Wild Card)
East:
Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox *
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles

Central:
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox
Detroit Tigers

West:
Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners

Most Valuable Player: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
Cy Young: Francisco Liriano, Minnesota
Rookie of the Year: Travis Snider, Toronto
Manager of the Year: Ron Washington, Texas

National League
East:
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets *
Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins
Washington Nationals

Central:
Chicago Cubs
St Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Houston Astros
Pittsburgh Pirates

West:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres

Most Valuable Player: Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles
Cy Young: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
Rookie of the Year: Jordan Schafer, Atlanta
Manager of the Year: Charlie Manuel, Philadelphia

Post-Season:
Tampa Bay d. Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland d. Boston
Tampa Bay d. Cleveland

Chicago Cubs d. Philadelphia
Los Angeles Dodgers d. New York
Los Angeles Dodgers d. Chicago Cubs

World Series:
Tampa Bay Rays defeat Los Angeles Dodgers in 6 games

Pirates Finalize 2009 Opening Day Roster

After placing pitcher Phil Dumatrait on the 15-day disabled list, and optioning reliever Evan Meek to AAA, the Pirates have their 25 players in place to begin the season. And they are:

Starting Pitchers: Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens

Relief Pitchers: Matt Capps, John Grabow, Tyler Yates, Sean Burnett, Craig Hansen, Donnie Veal and Jesse Chavez

Catchers: Ryan Doumit, Jason Jaramillo

Infielders: Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Andy LaRoche, Ramon Vazquez and Luis Cruz

Outfielders: Nyjer Morgan, Nate McLouth, Brandon Moss, Eric Hinske and Craig Monroe

I'm pretty sure Meek was only sent down because he hadn't pitched in nearly 2 weeks, due to a sore shoulder, followed by the flu. Should Chavez struggle at all, Meek will be called up in no time. And with Burnett and Hansen out of minor league options, and Veal needing to remain on the big league roster or else be offered back to the Cubs, the Pirates have very little flexibility in their bullpen. They were able to work out a deal with Tampa Bay last year for Meek, who was also a Rule 5 pickup. If Veal struggles early, I'm sure management will try hard to arrange something similar.

As for the overall makeup of this year's opening roster, it is worth noting that only 12 of the 25 were on the Opening Day roster in 2008. Of the other 13, 10 are no longer in the organization. Also, the mean average age for this year's group is 27.4. Last year, it was 28, though Chris Gomez being replaced by Luis Cruz would explain that. This number will most likely drop next year, as most Pirates over 30 could be gone and the Andrew McCutchens and Jose Tabatas of the world could be here.

Pirates Clinch Winning Record (in spring training)

With their 6-5 come-from-behind win today over the Reds, the Pittsburgh Pirates have clinched a winning record for the 2009 Grapefuit League season. This is the Pirates' first winning Spring season since 2005, a year in which they would go on to win 67 games and finish last in the National League Central during the regular season. Honestly, I can't say that I have any memories of that Spring for the Pirates, so I don't recall if I had any feelings of optimism then, though I kind of do now. I know the Pirates don't have the talent to compete just yet, but I'm optimistic that the right pieces are getting in place and the current management team knows what they're doing. 67 wins could be in order again this year, but, with a little luck, they could win 77 next year. And that might just be good enough for 4th place. Go Bucs!

8 More Cuts Are Made; Pirates' Roster About Set

The Pirates made 8 cuts this morning, leaving 27 players in the big league camp. The players cut were pitchers Virgil Vasquez, Chris Bootcheck, Denny Bautista and Jason Davis, catcher Erik Kratz, infielders Andy Phillips and Garrett Jones, and outfielder Jeff Salazar. The 27 players remaining in camp include pitcher Phil Dumatrait, who will start the season on the disabled list.

With the demotion of Vasquez, Jeff Karstens was named the team's 5th starter. Neither pitched all that well this Spring, but, as I've mentioned before, there will be much starting pitching depth at AAA, so Karstens' job is far from secure. Also, Craig Monroe has made the team as a reserve outfielder and Luis Cruz is in as a reserve infielder. The only position battle remaining is for the bullpen, where 5 players are competing for 4 spots. Sean Burnett, Donnie Veal, Jesse Chavez, Craig Hansen and Evan Meek will continue to battle. Though it may just be between Chavez and Meek because they are the only ones out of the 5 who have options remaining.

Dejan has much more information on these moves on the PBC Blog.

UPDATE: Since Monroe was a non-roster invitee, Romulo Sanchez was removed from the team's 40-man roster to clear a spot for him. Sanchez, who will be 25 later this month, has an ERA of 4.60 in 31 1/3 innings with Pittsburgh the over the past 2 seasons. Sanchez has performed fairly well in the minors and might not clear waivers, provided the Pirates don't trade or release him. The 32 year old Monroe is now the oldest player on the Pirate's 40-man roster.