Why the Pirates Will Finish in Last

First off, the Pirates finished in last place in 2008, with a record of 67-95, 7 full games behind the 5th place Reds, so predicting another trip to the cellar hardly seems insightful or daring. Before getting into the Pirates' deficiencies, let's take a look at the rest of the division:

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have won this division each of the past two seasons and their roster remains relatively intact this year. Though they have a very balanced team, with strong starting pitching, a good bullpen and a number of dangerous hitters, I feel this is a team on, or at least about to be on, a decline. Most of their position players are past their best seasons and the same goes for their starting pitchers. However, in this division, at least for this year, they will have enough.

St. Louis Cardinals: Tony LaRussa's teams are almost always competitive, and with a healthy Chris Carpenter, their starting rotation should be very good. They have a good, not great, offense, led by Albert Pujols. But I think this is also a team on the decline, and they'll only finish ahead of Milwaukee because the Brewers are declining a little faster.

Milwaukee Brewers: With CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets gone, the starting rotation is led by Yovani Gallardo. While I expect Gallardo to blossom into an elite starter, it won't be enough to make up for the mediocrity in the rest of the staff. Their bullpen is questionable and their defense is pretty bad. They have some seriously dangerous sluggers, led by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, and some intriguing prospects on the way in Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar, but they strike out at too severe a rate. If improved pitching doesn't arrive soon, Milwaukee could be heading back to the lower half of the division for years to come.

Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are a team on the rise. With young hitters like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, they have the makings of a very good offense. And their starting pitching is very solid, with Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. If their bullpen holds up, they might be able to sneak into the playoff race, but they will at least be a force by next year.

Houston Astros: This is an old team, with some talented players who are past their prime. Aside from Hunter Pence, not one significant player on their roster in under 30. Even their top two pitchers, Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez are over 30. They're a veteran team that is still capable of winning their share of games, but Father Time catches up this year.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Much has been made about the fact that the Pirates' 2008 record of 67-95 ended with a 17-37 finish after the trades of Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte and Jason Bay. And that Pirate team that lost 37 of their final 54 games last year is essentially the same group opening the 2009 season for the Bucs. That is true, but it would be foolish to suggest that the team will play to the same winning percentage this year. Aside from the positions vacated by the three aforementioned players, the Pirates could very well see improvement everywhere else.

Catcher: Ryan Doumit shined in his first semi-healthy season. If he can remain healthy this year, there is no reason to believe that his production would drop. And the backup catcher, Jason Jaramillo for now, is an upgrade over Ronny Paulino, at least defensively.

First Base: Adam LaRoche is back, ready to suck for 2 months before turning into a solid hitter. Though that trend continued last year, LaRoche did miss some time in August and really didn't hit as well in the second half as he usually does. If he can get off to a better start...Nah, who am I kidding? Expect 1B production this year to mirror last year's.

Second Base: Freddy Sanchez struggled through a shoulder injury last year and, though he didn't admit it, his hitting was affected. Sanchez did rebound to hit .340 after the All Star Break. Though I don't expect him to hit that high for this season, he certainly should improve upon his .271 average from a year ago.

Shortstop: Jack Wilson suffered through injuries last year, and his periodic replacement, Brian Bixler, was atrocious. Bixler looked much better in camp this year, so if Wilson goes down again, the drop off should not be as significant. Either way, it has to be better than last year.

Third Base: Andy LaRoche, who arrived in the Bay trade, looked over matched at the plate and in the field in 2008. Prior to his arrival, third base was occupied by Jose Bautista, Doug Mientkiewicz and Luis Rivas. None of which were outstanding, by any means. If LaRoche can play a little more comfortably, and prove his minor league offensive numbers were legitimate, the Pirates could maybe be average at third.

Left Field: Nyjer Morgan replaces Jason Bay. Expect more steals, little else. I do like Nyjer, not as a long term solution, but as a 4th or 5th outfielder or trade bait. But his production will be dwarfed by Bay's from '08.

Center Field: Nate McLouth was the Pirates' breakout star in 2008. Taking advantage of the playing time that Jim Tracy didn't offer, McLouth was an All-Star, he surpassed 20 home runs and 20 steals, and he won (thanks to the notoriety his offense provided) a Gold Glove. I don't see any reason why McLouth couldn't produce just as well this year.

Right Field: Brandon Moss might end up being as good a hitter as Nady, but I doubt we'll see him accomplish that this year. Probably not even close.

Bullpen: This year's bullpen should be worse than last. Matt Capps, John Grabow and Tyler Yates could be just as good this year as last, but aside from them, it's pretty questionable. And with 3 of the other 4 stuck on the active roster (due to player options and Rule 5 status), there is little room to make changes.

Starting Pitching: What was clearly the team's weakest point a year ago looks a little stronger today. Though all 5 starters (Paul Maholm, Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Karstens) made starts last year, and therefore contributed to the league worst team ERA of 5.08, the absence of other dreadful pitchers, and the presence of suitable fill-ins in AAA, makes me feel a little more optimistic this year. Even is you were to discount the performances of John Van Benschoten, Yoslan Herrera and Matt Morris, the Pirates' team ERA would have been 4.86, still last in the National League. But I do feel that Ian Snell will bounce back this year and Zach Duke may show some improvement too. And with 5 capable starters available at AAA, should the need arise, there shouldn't be much of a drop off in performance.

Though I think the Pirates' final record for this year will be closer to their final record from last year than to their post-trade record, it will still not be enough to climb in the standings. My goal for the team is 75 wins. Though that might be a reach, I still feel this will be a competitive team and, coupled with the decline of their division mates, a fourth or fifth place finish in 2010 is well within reach.