Monday, June 8, 2009

2009 Season, So Far

Here we are, just over a third of the way through the 2009 season. The Pirates currently sit at 26-30, in fifth place, just a half game ahead of Houston. I want to take this time to mention some aspects of the season so far that stand out to me.

Nate McLouth: How could this not be the first topic? Though I fully support this trade, at least the idea of it, it still was quite unexpected. In fact, it still seems odd that McLouth is gone. However, with the Bucs very unlikely to contend this year, and possibly next year too, trading a player at his peak value makes tremendous sense. McLouth is a very solid hitter and a hard-nosed player, but it's not like the Cardinals trading Pujols, or even the Padres trading Adrian Gonzalez. McLouth is definitely in a much lower tier than those sort of players. And with Andrew McCutchen now up, it really softens the blow.

The Improved Defense: By any measure, the Pirates' defense in 2009 is vastly superior to the 2008 version. Much of this has to do with the outfield, with Nyjer Morgan replacing Jason Bay and Brandon Moss, among others, replacing Xavier Nady. Andy LaRoche, at third, is also an upgrade over Jose Bautista. There's a great piece over at Buc's Dugout analyzing this. And now with McCutchen taking over for McLouth, an even greater improvement should transpire. As the Buc's Dugout piece mentions, the defense has played a large role in the Pirates' pitching staff's turnaround. Though, replacing the likes of Matt Morris and JVB with Ross Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens has a lot to do with that as well.

With the McLouth trade, and the unusual positioning of Morgan in left field, it appears that the Pirates' brass is placing a premium on defense, as they rebuild the team. If the newer defensive statistics can be trusted, and I think they can, then a cost-conscious team like the Pirates can become more competitive by focusing on defense, which is much less costly, as much as offense in order to help them outscore their opponents. It's this kind of progressive thinking that gives me confidence in Huntington and company.

The Minor Leagues: After the Pirates' most aggressive draft in recent memory, and the acquisition of some intriguing players in last year's trades, much more attention is being paid to the team's minor league affiliates. The results, so far, have been mixed, but the fact that there is some legitimate talent around is certainly exciting.

Pedro Alvarez, last year's #1 pick, is doing alright at High-A Lynchburg. Though he has hit 10 home runs and driven in 42 runs through 54 games, his 57 strike outs stand out, as do his 11 errors at third. However, since the pitchers at that level do not possess the control that they do at higher levels, and the fields in the minors can be a little questionable, those two statistics should not be of major concern. I still expect Alvarez to be called up to AA-Altoona by the end of July.

Some other high profile picks from last year are performing fairly well this year. Jordy Mercer, Chase D'Arnaud, Robbie Grossman and Calvin Anderson are all doing okay.

Two high profile acquisitions from last year, outfielder Jose Tabata and pitcher Bryan Morris, have spent much of the season out of commission with injuries. Tabata has been out since very early in the season with a hamstring injury and Morris made his season debut just last night. Both are highly regarded and were possibly the key components of the two trades last summer.

Brad Lincoln, the Pirates' first round pick from 2006, has been pitching tremendously for AA-Altoona this year. In 11 starts, covering 64 2/3 innings, he has an ERA of 1.95 and a WHIP of 1.01. Lincoln has walked 15, struck out 60 and held opponents to a batting average of .215. This is especially encouraging after Lincoln has missed so much time to injury already in his young career. And the Post Gazette reported yesterday that Lincoln will be promoted to AAA-Indianapolis very soon.

The Future: The 2009 amateur draft begins tomorrow, and the Pirates have the 4th selection. I really don't follow college, or high school, baseball so I have no insight to offer on the talent available. This year's draft class is supposed to be fairly weak, at least compared to last year's. I still expect the team to draft aggressively and probably pay over slot for some later picks. However, the more intriguing signing this summer could be that of Dominican teenager Miguel Angel Sano. The 16 year old is widely regarded as the best international prospect this year and the Pirates seem to have the inside track. Sano is expected to cost $4 million to sign. While that is clearly a risky investment for a 16 year old, a move like this is crucial for the Bucs. Acquiring the top player in the DR will put the Pirates on the map down there, thus making them more recognizable to top prospects in years to come. With this year's amateur draft likely taking less money than last year's, and with the little bit of money saved in the McLouth deal, the Pirates have no excuse, at least financially, not to make this happen.

I fully expect more trades to happen before the season is over, most likely involving John Grabow and Adam Laroche. With the continued improvements of relievers Sean Burnett, Jesse Chavez and Evan Meek, the loss of Grabow would not be felt too much. And with Steve Pearce the most likely candidate to replace LaRoche should he be traded, I feel at least some offense will be provided. At the very least, in that scenario, we'll get to see just what Pearce can do. However, with the unexpected sell-high trade of McLouth, other players, such as Freddy Sanchez, Zach Duke and Matt Capps, could be moved as well, provided an attractive return is offered.

Though it is somewhat sad to see beloved players shipped out of town, and I'm guilty of becoming emotionally attached to players, Huntington and company have done nothing so far during their reign to make me explicitly doubt their intentions. When, not if, these next trades happen, it will kind of suck, in the short term at least, but it will only make the organization stronger. That's important to keep in mind. I don't want the Pirates to be built to be contenders in 2010, or 2011. I want them to be contenders every year. And that will mean that the team will always be trying to improve, which will mean that there will always be unpopular trades. It sucks, but that's how our team works.

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