A Look at the Pirates' 2009 Starting Rotation

With 17 days until the 2009 season begins, the Pittsburgh Pirates' starting rotation looks to be about set. Before Spring Training even began, Paul Maholm was essentially told he was the one starting pitcher whose job was secure. Through 13 2/3 Spring innings, Maholm has been remarkable, allowing only 1 run on 7 hits and 1 walk. Maholm has earned, and will make, the Opening Day start on April 6 in St. Louis. Maholm has been progressing nicely as a big league starter, and I fully expect that to continue this year.

GM Neal Huntington and Manager John Russell made a point of saying this Spring that there will be competition for the remaining spots in the rotation, citing last year's pre-spring announcement of who the five pitchers would be, and the subsequent horrible performances turned in by most of them. However, since hopefuls Ian Snell and Zach Duke make hefty salaries (by Pirate's standards), and they have been fixtures in the Pirate's rotation for the past 3+ years, everyone kind of assumed they would make it, and they did.

Snell is coming off his worst pro season, but I'm hoping the presence of new pitching coach Joe Kerrigan will help him rediscover his success from 2007. If his performance for team Puerto Rico in the WBC is any indication, we could be in store for a nice bounce back year from Snell.

Duke exploded onto the scene in 2005, going 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 84 2/3 innings. The three years since have been a different story, with Duke going a combined 18-37, with an ERA of 4.82, and allowing an ungodly .359 opponent's average in 2007. Theories abound as to what happened here. Did hitters figure him out? Did former pitching coach Jim Colburn, who famously tweaked Duke's delivery in the Spring of 2006, cause such long-lasting damage to the pitcher? Was it a Gypsy curse? I really don't know. Once again, I am hoping that Kerrigan can work a little magic here. Duke has looked sharp so far this Spring, and his Spring numbers tend to have a correlation to his regular season stats.

The final two spots in the rotation are actually being decided by competition, and it looks like Ross Ohlendorf is the first to claim his prize. Ohlendorf is one of three pitchers (plus outfielder Jose Tabata) to come over in the Nady/Marte trade with the Yankees last summer. The other two, Jeff Karstens and Daniel McCutchen, are/were also in the rotation competition. Though he did not pitch all that well in the five starts he made last September, Ohlendorf does have more immediate upside than the other two ex-Yanks, so it's not a surprise to see him outperform them.

The final spot has come down to Karstens, Virgil Vasquez and Jason Davis. McCutchen is well thought of and will most likely make his big league debut later this year. Tom Gorzelanny, potential ace from 2007 and basket case last season, was optioned to AAA earlier this week, removing him from contention. Of the three remaining, I would assume Karstens will get the call. He made 9 starts for Pittsburgh last year, the most memorable of which was his near perfect game against Arizona. Davis is more of a journeyman type, who could help fill out the rotation at AAA or serve as the Pirate's long reliever, and Vasquez just doesn't have as much experience as Karstens or a connection to a blockbuster trade that the current management team wants to have been a success. That's not to say Karstens, if he makes the rotation, is undeserving of his spot, just that his tie to that trade works in his favor.

With a starting rotation of Maholm, Snell, Duke, Ohlendorf and Karstens, and viable starting options of Davis, Vasquez, Gorzelanny, McCutchen and Jimmy Barthmeier in the bullpen or at AAA, the overall availability of quality starting pitching the Pirates have in the upper levels of their franchise is very satisfactory. And with Brad Lincoln probably starting out in AA, and Bryan Morris in high A, more depth is on its way. Though the Bucs' starting pitching probably won't rank among the league's best this year, enough improvements have been made to where it will no longer be an embarrassment.

There's always the possibility that another starting pitcher could be signed before the season starts. The Pirates have talked with Pedro Martinez this off season, though his asking price appears to be too high. The Pirates have also talked with Odalis Perez. I don't see the addition of Perez helping the team much, if at all, this year, and his inclusion, at the expense of a young starter already on the team, could have a negative long-term effect.